Trump Tariffs: A Real Circus

Trump II, the digital Caligula has not clarified the purpose of his excessive tariffs.  Is it to raise revenue or a negotiating tactic?  Does the Trump budget need that $6 million over ten years to extend and improve tax cuts for billionaires?  My wise friend wrote:

This whole tariff business is all about shifting the blame and the tax offset from the elite. Trump just tweeted from his bully pulpit all of this is because Asia has been taking advantage of us.  And they should have done what HE told them. I wonder If he is trying his best to make it difficult for people of the Asian cultures to live here in the same way the War of Terror made it difficult for people of Middle East Heritage, i.e. put the target on someone else's back. 

Meanwhile, the elite are backing off with Stanley Druckenmiller adamantly opposing high tariffs and supporting lower ones (@ 10%). Well Stanley sometimes there's no exit from a TRUMP purchase, you know private markets and all.

Bill Ackman throws his vitriol on Howard Lutnick telling the world he loves financial havoc because Howard owns a bond FIRM. Oh, how the strong grow weak through a declining P and L, shrinking AUM and the spinning blade of leverage. How's that song? Hush now Billy don't you cry, daddy's going to buy you a CAR load of SPY.

Everything that's happening today is the result of the bailouts and the monetization of the entire United States of America. The layer of interest expense on every industry and sector goes into prices at the expense of labor. Financial engineering . This affects the pricing of the entitlements.  Stanley Druckenmiller and his ilk point to as the downfall of sustaining the social contract.. 

How convenient to point to these things that keep middle to lower income families sustainable. I guess they did not realize the federal budget sent money to the states to help the workers at Walmart, subsidize the low wages with food stamps and health care? 

The transfer of wealth to the financial sector is a direct result of this layer. a WRAP FEE on America. Meanwhile there's no way in Hell we are going to get rid of the IRS and tax receipts and substitute tariff income, unless we abandon the 50% of the population Trump says he's going to save? Good luck with that.

Trump scolded citizens concerned about their disappearing retirement account.  He did so from his 18 hole golf trip.

Trump II ravaged Trump I for not taking this action in his first term with his "should have been done decades ago" rant.

The confusion over revenue vs. negotiation seems to have been purposefully generated by the Trump team.  

Red Team megadonor Ken Langone joined fellow billionaires Ackman and Druckenmiller in opposing Trump's excessive tariffs.  CNBC reported Langone:

"..called the 46% import duties on Vietnam “bullshit” and describing the 34% tariff rate on China as “too aggressive, too soon.”  

“I don’t understand the goddamn formula.  I believe [Trump’s] been poorly advised by his advisers about this trade situation — and the formula they’re applying."

Langone should know Trump does not have advisors as that requires listening.  The Donarch has staff that are supposed to execute his savage whims to a "T"rump.

Navarro: "Enough Work for Robots & People"

Trump II's manufacturing renaissance will provide "enough work for robots and people," according to Peter Navarro, Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing.  

Navarro blamed other countries for hollowing out U.S. towns but those countries did not buy the companies which closed plants and sent jobs overseas.  Private equity underwriters (PEU) and corporate CEOs shuttered them.  Many PEUs are in Congress and Trump's cabinet and neither is a new development.  

Twisted Trump:  The people who sent American jobs overseas are the beneficiary of Trump's prior and new tax breaks.  They've enjoyed preferred "carried interest" taxation over the whole period they exported U.S. jobs and hollowed out small towns.

Peter suggested the "media calm down and not panic people."  Commerce Chief Howard Lutnick's mother may not be concerned about her retirement account after Trump's "reciprocating saw" tariffs cut $6.4 trillion in stock market value, but many rely on that money for daily living and cannot afford a huge hit.  In another interview Navarro said Trump tariffs would raise $6 trillion over ten years.

Twisted Trump:  The loss in market value in two days is more than the revenue projected from tariffs over ten years.    

Is this part of the deal TechGods struck with Trump II, the digital Caligula, and Vice President J.D. Vance, a Peter Theil disciple?   TechGod strategy: 

1. JD Vance, one of their own, installed as VP candidate
2. Contributed gobs of money to Trump II
3. Used their online influence to steer voters toward Trump/Vance lever
4. Got another one of their own (Elon Musk) inside government to push adoption of their tech and slash headcount
5. Government takes a portion of "the savings" to buy additional TechGod tech offerings
6. Use tariffs to incentivize corporations to build new high tech manufacturing plants, with robotic equipment purchased from TechGod companies.

Navarro asked that people "Trust in Trump."  How can people trust someone obsessed with constant adulation and retribution (when adulation is inadequately offered or worse yet, completely absent)?

Peter tossed out the rosy future "50,000 on Dow" and "Rising real wages."   His final sales pitch was "We did it before."  That was nowhere near this scale, Mr. Navarro.  

Our retirement accounts have taken a massive hit to fuel robot manufacturing in the U.S., which I expect will need to be further subsidized at the federal, state and local level.    

Politicians Red and Blue love PEUs and their insufferable TechGod brethren.   Shortly after his coronation Trump announced the $500 billion Stargate project in conjunction with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.    Stargate plans to build 20 massive data centers with the first one under construction in Texas.  It didn't take long for Trump kids Don Jr and Eric to form American Data Centers with Dominari Holdings (which offices in Trump Tower).  

Stargate's first data center is the former Lancium site (bitcoin mining) in Abilene, Texas.  I reported on its development in 2021.  In 2024 the project shifted focus from bitcoin mining to AI.  

Ninety miles south the City of San Angelo, Texas plans to sell land to SkyBox Data Centers.  It's not clear at this time if it will be part of Stargate.  The mix of energy production and cheap land has West Texas in a sweet spot.

The Trump boys' American Data Centers did the opposite of Lancium.  They shifted from AI to bitcoin mining in their recent deal with Hut8.   The result is American Bitcoin where Eric is Chief Strategy Officer.  The switch came just in time as tariffs stand to restrict bitcoin mining equipment which is made mostly in Asia.  Not many executives call Trump II "Dad".  

Back to the TechGods and their dalliance with Trump.  OpenAI's Sam Altman is invested in "Tools for Humanity" which offers the Orb, Worldcoin, World ID, World App and World Chain.  In Altman's future AI and robots are so pervasive that a device is needed to prove your humanity.

I'd rather live in a world where non-humans have to disclose their status.  As far as I am concerned TechGods are the tools.

Just as elected officials laid down for the social media giants, they are catering to the next generation of digital predators.  

Tariffs are designed to give robots work.  That's the Twisted Trump takeaway.

Trump's Grand Two Days While Market Imploded

Trump II, the digital Caligula announced his "reciprocating saw" tariffs on Wednesday.  That saw cut $6.4 trillion in stock market value over the next two trading days.

During that historic stock market implosion Trump announced the Trump Gold Card which allows noncitizens to "buy permanent residency with green card privileges and a pathway to citizenship."

Trump said he would buy the first one.  On who's behalf?  He did not say.  

South African TechGods enabled Trump with massive campaign donations and mobilized the Techiverse to install the Donarch.  In return, one of theirs is currently remaking the government using the corporate takeover playbook.  

Elon Musk, who I recently nicknamed "Doink" is nearing the end of his DOUGEBAG leadership/non-leadership.  Trump received the moniker "Pablum" which is spot on for his tariff "construction" and ever shifting rationales.  

Ferrying "Pablum" around the golf course was son Eric, the new Chief Strategy Officer for American Bitcoin which conducts bitcoin mining.  It's also targeting the government's strategic bitcoin reserve "development and monetization."   I bet his dad can help with that. 

Yes, while your retirement fund melted like a "wet witch" Trump II was developing $5,000,000 products for his non-citizen peers and supporting the Saudi Public Investment Fund's golf franchise, LIV Golf.  

Son-in-law Jared Kushner's Affinity Partners manages billions in Saudi PIF money.  Other Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds committed funds to Affinity in the past year.  

Our "Tariffer in Chief" defended his actions on his social media site.  

MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE.  

ONLY THE WEAK WILL FAIL!

"Reciprocal" tariffs that are not based in reality.  Callousness to the real financial losses of little people.  Significant family business conflicts.  Didn't his people say fraudsters SCREAM THE LOUDEST?  

Trump Sons Target Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Trump II, the digital Caligula's tariff regime and weakening dollar could help recent Trump family cryptocurrency ventures.  Trump's elder sons shifted from AI data centers to Bitcoin mining on Monday, two days before their Dad shocked the world with his excessive tariff announcement.

The boys locked up Bitcoin mining capacity prior to Trump II shaking up that industry's supply chain.

A Dominari Holdings SEC filing stated:

Dominari Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: DOMH) today announced that American Data Centers Inc. (“ADC”) and Hut 8 Corp, (“Hut”) partnered to form American Bitcoin Corporation. As previously announced, ADC was a wholly owned subsidiary of Dominari, but became an independent company, whose members include Donald J. Trump Jr., Eric Trump, Dominari and other industry professionals in the AI space. In partnership with Hut, American Bitcoin Corp., will focus on industrial-scale bitcoin mining and strategic bitcoin reserve development and monetization.

Yet another high tech/crypto venture dependent on Uncle Sam's wallet which their highly conflicted Daddy controls.  

Update 4-5-25:  Eric Trump owns 966,138 shares of Dominari Holdings as of 2-18-25.  Dominari offices in Trump Tower on the 22nd floor.  

Dominari noted that it would be fifteen days late filing their 2024 financial results with the SEC due to the firm's rapid growth during the year.

Libation Day: The Aftermath

It turns out Trump II's tariff analysis had all the rigor of a DOUGEBAG savings.  Every business channel is eviscerating its construction.

“[It is] quite an extraordinary calculation after months of work behind the scenes,” said Jim Reid, the global head of macro research at Deutsche Bank. “[It] didn’t add much confidence on there being an in-depth strategic implementation plan.”

Economic experts noted that estimating tariffs and the cost of unfair trade is difficult but they expected better than dividing the U.S.'s trade deficit with that country by the value of imports from that same country.  Trump II is characterizing our buying more from outside the country than those countries buy from us as "ripping us off."  As Sarah Eisner of CNBC said, "The U.S. does not grow coffee.  We don't grow bananas."

So why would Trump II, the digital Caligula push such a draconian economic policy?  One, Trump needs revenue, even the kind that evaporates under examination, to give his billionaire buddies their extended and improved tax cuts.  These are the same billionaires, many private equity underwriters (PEU) who sent jobs overseas under both Red and Blue White Houses.  Trump blamed the receiving nations, as erroneous as his tariff calculation.

"For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far. ... Foreign leaders have stolen our jobs, foreign cheaters have ransacked our factories and foreign scavengers have torn apart our once beautiful American dream."

Looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by the very people getting Trump's massive tax cuts.  PEU legendary founders stole the jobs, ransacked affiliate factories and sucked the American dream into their personal coffers.  Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin knows as he sent thousands of jobs to China while at The Carlyle Group.  The greed and leverage boys have something new to sell you.  

Two, Trump II, the digital Caligula's billionaire buddies want their PEU products in your 401(k).  A shock to the retirement account balance may foster their consideration.  It may even steer people away from a study showing major stock indexes beat alternatives over time

Three, Trump II, the digital Caligula is in the dollar alternative business, cryotocurrencies, and a shock to the dollar's value could open people to the Trump family personal currency option ($TRUMP, Official Melania, Bitcoin (American Bitcoin), TMTG's TruthFi (crypto ETFs) & World Liberty Financial).

Trump said on the campaign trail that his tariffs would "bring down prices."  It's on tape.

Baron knows how to find the clip with his father's clearly stated promise.  He's a genius at that stuff.

Be sure to watch the clip before your next voting opportunity when you vote your pocketbook. 

Update 4-4-25:  Not being listened to for your expertise is common under Trump II, the digital Caligula.  At least one high up in the Trump cabinet may be ready to pull the rip cord.  A couple months of Pablum (my new nickname for Trump) is a couple of months too many from a direct report perspective, especially one trying to advise on tariffs.  

Canada's new prime minister noted:

“The 80-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership, when it forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect, and championed the free and open exchange of goods and services, is over.”

Update 4-5-25:  Infamous Wall Street trader "Einstein" said of Trump's reciprocal tariff analysis:

And the formula they used for these numbers to measure the trade deficit, it’s like ‘apples, oranges, a couple of cashews, divided by ten, times four’ — none of it makes any sense.”

If only Einstein were a "very stable genius."

Jim Cramer offered his disappoint in the analysis:

They “screwed it up and … they did it in a totally ill-advised way.”

Update 4-6-25:  Yet another assessment of the Trump tariff "calculation":

"The problem is the execution of it," RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance on Friday. "That nonsensical introduction of the formula. It's the loss of credibility on the part of the administration, the loss of confidence of markets in them — that's what's causing this."

Lots more Trump nonsense to come.  Conservative think tank AEI found the problem with the formula which caused tariffs to be overstated.  AEI calculated that tariffs over the minimum 10% should be 25% of the amount Trump is imposing.

Hedge fund investor Doug Kass characterized Trump's speech as "Liberation (From All Logic) Day."  In a reply to Bill Ackman, Kass noted "the Administration's trade and fiscal policy - which has turned out to be reckless, ill-conceived, dangerous, feckless and fatuous."  

Update 4-7-25:  An Australian newspaper encouraged the world to move on without the U.S.

The Trumpists are not even right-wing or conservative in the normal sense, just tribal, recklessly macho and inept.

Corporate chiefs are not happy about the tariffs and their extremely negative financial impact, however they are reticent to speak up.

"They don’t want to be the lightning rod," he said. "Then it becomes personalized to them."

Executives afraid t speak up about a critical situation for fear of retaliation?  Neither is leadership.

Let me get back to my libation...

Tariff Running Man

It's a big day for two of the biggest manipulators of fear, violence and money to induce behavior.  Trump II, the digital Caligula, will announce his giant new tax plan by implementing additional tariffs on imported goods.  His version of Running Man airs at 4:00 pm from the Rose Garden.  Trump wants to bring back Tariff Runners, a greatly expanded black market enabled by his family's digital currency holdings.  If billionaires can give millions to avoid taxes, what can corporate chiefs do to avoid tariffs.  Maybe not bring their goods in through official channels and use an anonymous financial instrument.  Trump practically invited them to do so by dismantling regulatory enforcers and pardoning a gaggle of fraud convicts.

Fellow manipulator Elon Musk is wondering why his millions ($) did not garner his desired outcome in Wisconsin.  Enough Cheeseheads recognized the South African Carpetbagger who's treating government employees like their auto parts manufacturing peers.  "No job for you."

At least Elon didn't tell Wisconsinites to envision they were voting with a bomb strapped to their head or that they needed to sleep in the voting booth for their vote to count.

Independent voters are realizing they were conned in that last election by the master of cons, funded by another master of cons.  They voted for a decent economy doing better and action to bring down inflation.  Trump seems intent on accelerating an economic descent while sending prices soaring across the board.  

Tariffs are taxes and they will be avoided at all costs by the billionaire private equity underwriters (PEU) and their fellow TechGods, which sponsor both political teams.  For decades this billionaire PEU class exported jobs to Asia under the widespread approval of politicians Red and Blue.  Highly unpopular PEU preferred "carried interest" taxation remains firmly in place after both parties used its elimination as a campaign slogan.

Tariff Running Man starts today.  Who loves Trump and who does he love, besides Elon?

Place your bets!!!!

Update:  You want people in front of the "click bait" social media and not protesting.  Elon folded X into xAI, while Trump II's Truth Social filed for him to unload his shares.

Trump gets more financial freedom while saddling others with misery.  That's exciting for our Fraudster in Chief.  It's worth a kiss and maybe some tongue.

The Great Announcer did his thing in the Rose Garden and Dow Futures plummeted.  CNBC reported:

“What was delivered was as haphazard as anything this administration has done to date, and the level of complication on top of the ultimate level of new tariffs is worse than had been feared and not yet priced into the market,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management.

Another Savage Whim from the Great Usurper.

For many, it's Libation Day....

My wise friend wrote:

It's interesting you use the term running man. I think of him as a burning man. Burns everything down like a bust out. He'll do anything to enrich himself and everyone else pays. We knew his history, he has revealed himself many times, and yet the people of this country invited him back into the White House. Did you see yesterday's interview with Kid Rock? Every other head of state throughout the world has to be thinking what a clown show.

My response:

Trump's much more of a burning man as you so ably point out. Everyone was waiting for the big announcement so I chose an announcer proxy in Damon Killian. Had a little fun with it. Some of my stuff sticks better than others....and some stinks greater than others. Interesting that Trump can sling any crap against the wall and many people buy it. 

Saw Kid Rock's White House outfit, a la Elon. It takes hubris in spades to denigrate the sanctity of the Oval Office.

Who loves you and who do you love?  It's time to start RUNNING.....

SkinTECH Failure: Luxury Covering

The Business of Fashion reported the resignation of CaaStle's founder and CEO Christine Hunsicker.  CaaStle provides clothing rental logistics services for high end brands.  A letter sent by the CaaStle board stated that Hunsicker:

had given some investors “misstated financial statements and falsified audit opinions, as well as capitalisation information that understated the number of company shares outstanding,” the letter said. 

“The company is facing a severe and immediate liquidity problem,”

Having Caa in the company's name should have been a warning given Moody's ratings considers Caa1 "judged to be of poor standing and are subject to very high credit risk."  Forget the sorry name, what does the company actually do?  

Crunchbase reports:

CaaStle is focused on developing systems and methods for managing data associated with wearable items in a clothing subscription service. This includes creating electronic platforms for transactions and inventory sharing, as well as user interfaces for electronic interactions. They are also working on garment size recommendations and optimizing wearable item selection. Additionally, CaaStle is exploring image analysis for apparel and electronic recommendation engines for apparel subscriptions. These efforts aim to enhance the efficiency and user experience of their Clothing as a Service model.

What happens if skintech CaaStle does not get another liquidity injection from Bill Ackman?  

Who gets the keys to the CaaStle?  Maybe nobody, as in the case of fintech Synapse.  Marc Andreessen fled from that stinking corpse all the way to Washington, D.C. where he joined the "government as a SERVE US billionaires" model.  

Update 4-2-25:  Axios reported the depths of Hunsicker's financial chicanery:

Hunsicker last year told prospective investors that CaaStle generated $519 million in 2023 revenue. According to audited financials that the company sent this weekend to shareholders, the actual revenue figure for the year ending Sept. 30, 2023 was only $15.7 million. 

Prospective investors also were told that fiscal 2022 revenue was $278 million, when it actually was $19.7 million. Projections for 2024 and 2025 revenue were $793 million and around $1 billion, respectively. Hunsicker also claimed that 2023 EBITDA was $91 million and virtually flat in 2022. The audited financials don't specifically include EBITDA, but do show a combined $135 million net loss for the two fiscal years. 

Prospective investors were told that CaaStle had hundreds of millions of dollars in cash as of mid-2024. If so, that's a heck of a trick. It ended Sept. 2023 with less than $1 million in cash and around $3 million in total assets, and then raised just under $60 million in subsequent funding.

Hunsicker co-founded other skintech companies which are now fleeing from her dung filled representations.  If Marc Andreessen can skate Synapse's debacle, surely Hunsicker can arrange something.

Trump's Instant "T" Frustrates PEU Leaf Readers

Private equity underwriters (PEU) hired high level tea leaf readers over the last few decades.  They include:

The Carlyle Group - Admiral James Stavridis (a regular on CNN)

KKR - General David Petraeus

Apollo - David Krone, former Chief of Staff Senator Harry Reid

These talented seers of the future were aided by PEU founders, legendary for their ability to influence government policy.  

Trump II's tariff gyrations have flummoxed PEU Legends and their high paid strategists.  "T" is for tariff and it's very hard to read the leaves if they remain in the mind of one man, especially one known for his savage whims.

The greed and leverage boys thought they'd be shopping affiliates in an economy with accelerating growth and increasing capital flows into the U.S. because "our tech is the world's future."  That is not happening.

Oddly, PEUs may gain new affiliates via their private credit offerings, getting the keys to other PEU's affiliates unable to keep up with interest payments.  

PEU Libation Day may involve exchanging their sponsor's name, creditor eats wiped out equity owner.  Those tea leaves are somewhat readable.

Otherwise, the world awaits the decrees of the Savage Whimmer.  Libation may be in all our futures.

Update 4-4-25:  Trump truly savage whimmed the U.S. economy with his grossly excessive tariffs.  Wall Street spent the last two days imploding.

ZeroHedge ran a piece that does an outstanding job of illuminating numerous PEU dilemmas.  PEU siphoning of captive insurance company assets could jeopardize insurers as tariffs attack corporate earnings, cash flow and ability of PEU affiliates to pay sponsor management fees and interest on sponsor laden debt.