It turns out Trump II's tariff analysis had all the rigor of a DOUGEBAG savings. Every business channel is eviscerating its construction.
“[It is] quite an extraordinary calculation after months of work behind the scenes,” said Jim Reid, the global head of macro research at Deutsche Bank. “[It] didn’t add much confidence on there being an in-depth strategic implementation plan.”Economic experts noted that estimating tariffs and the cost of unfair trade is difficult but they expected better than dividing the U.S.'s trade deficit with that country by the value of imports from that same country. Trump II is characterizing our buying more from outside the country than those countries buy from us as "ripping us off." As Sarah Eisner of CNBC said, "The U.S. does not grow coffee. We don't grow bananas."
So why would Trump II, the digital Caligula push such a draconian economic policy? One, Trump needs revenue, even the kind that evaporates under examination, to give his billionaire buddies their extended and improved tax cuts. These are the same billionaires, many private equity underwriters (PEU) who sent jobs overseas under both Red and Blue White Houses. Trump blamed the receiving nations, as erroneous as his tariff calculation.
"For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far. ... Foreign leaders have stolen our jobs, foreign cheaters have ransacked our factories and foreign scavengers have torn apart our once beautiful American dream."
Looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by the very people getting Trump's massive tax cuts. PEU legendary founders stole the jobs, ransacked affiliate factories and sucked the American dream into their personal coffers. Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin knows as he sent thousands of jobs to China while at The Carlyle Group. The greed and leverage boys have something new to sell you.
Two, Trump II, the digital Caligula's billionaire buddies want their PEU products in your 401(k). A shock to the retirement account balance may foster their consideration. It may even steer people away from a study showing major stock indexes beat alternatives over time
Three, Trump II, the digital Caligula is in the dollar alternative business, cryotocurrencies, and a shock to the dollar's value could open people to the Trump family personal currency option ($TRUMP, Official Melania, Bitcoin (American Bitcoin), TMTG's TruthFi (crypto ETFs) & World Liberty Financial).
Trump said on the campaign trail that his tariffs would "bring down prices." It's on tape.
Baron knows how to find the clip with his father's clearly stated promise. He's a genius at that stuff.
Be sure to watch the clip before your next voting opportunity when you vote your pocketbook.
Update 4-4-25: Not being listened to for your expertise is common under Trump II, the digital Caligula. At least one high up in the Trump cabinet may be ready to pull the rip cord. A couple months of Pablum (my new nickname for Trump) is a couple of months too many from a direct report perspective, especially one trying to advise on tariffs.
Canada's new prime minister noted:
“The 80-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership, when it forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect, and championed the free and open exchange of goods and services, is over.”
Update 4-5-25: Infamous Wall Street trader "Einstein" said of Trump's reciprocal tariff analysis:
And the formula they used for these numbers to measure the trade deficit, it’s like ‘apples, oranges, a couple of cashews, divided by ten, times four’ — none of it makes any sense.”If only Einstein were a "very stable genius."
Jim Cramer offered his disappoint in the analysis:
They “screwed it up and … they did it in a totally ill-advised way.”
Update 4-6-25: Yet another assessment of the Trump tariff "calculation":
"The problem is the execution of it," RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance on Friday. "That nonsensical introduction of the formula. It's the loss of credibility on the part of the administration, the loss of confidence of markets in them — that's what's causing this."Lots more Trump nonsense to come. Conservative think tank AEI found the problem with the formula which caused tariffs to be overstated. AEI calculated that tariffs over the minimum 10% should be 25% of the amount Trump is imposing.
Hedge fund investor Doug Kass characterized Trump's speech as "Liberation (From All Logic) Day." In a reply to Bill Ackman, Kass noted "the Administration's trade and fiscal policy - which has turned out to be reckless, ill-conceived, dangerous, feckless and fatuous."
Update 4-7-25: An Australian newspaper encouraged the world to move on without the U.S.
The Trumpists are not even right-wing or conservative in the normal sense, just tribal, recklessly macho and inept.Corporate chiefs are not happy about the tariffs and their extremely negative financial impact, however they are reticent to speak up.
"They don’t want to be the lightning rod," he said. "Then it becomes personalized to them."Executives afraid t speak up about a critical situation for fear of retaliation? Neither is leadership.
Let me get back to my libation...