Friday, August 29, 2008

Iraq's First Oil Agreement a $3 Billion Deal with China?


The AP reported on the Iraqi central government's negotiated oil deal with China National Petroleum Company.

China and Iraq have signed a $3 billion deal revising an earlier agreement for China's biggest oil company to help develop the Ahdab oil field, an official at the Iraq's Oil Ministry said today.

The deal, restoring a project canceled after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, was signed last night by Chinese officials and Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani.

"The initial agreement has been signed, and we are waiting to see the approval of both governments," said Sarhad Fatah, a spokesman at the Iraqi Embassy in Beijing.

Fatah would not disclose the value of the deal, but an official at the Oil Ministry in Baghdad confirmed it would be worth $3 billion. He requested anonymity because the agreement hasn't been approved by the cabinet yet.

Did anyone ask our soldiers for their reaction?

Carlyle Group's "Hair of the Dog" Strategy on Banks


The Carlyle Group's Randall Quarles, prior Undersecretary of Treasury, wants banking regulations changed. He wants the Federal Reserve to grant private equity underwriters (PEU's) greater flexibility in buying chunks of American banks. This involves relaxing current restrictions on how large a stake non-banking firms can own.

And why are current restrictions considered onerous? Reuters said:

They can still take smaller stakes that are below certain ownership levels, but the firms fear they will then have too little power to sway a bank's strategy.

Sway a bank's strategy? Oh, they mean crank up the risk/reward curve. Isn't that what got banks in trouble to begin with? They wrote down billions in investments in high risk loans, packaged as Triple-A securities by hard partying, fee generating Wall Street.

Also, Carlyle has experience cranking that risk/reward curve. Highly leveraged Carlyle Capital Corporation and dice rolling, energy affiliate SemGroup declared bankruptcy.

The rationale for allowing private equity to own greater portions of banks is "they have the money." Yes, and liquor stores have plenty of alcohol. Welcome to "hair of the dog" financial reactioneering.

Carlyle goes to the bottle frequently for billions in loans. How nice to have their own still, I mean a captive bank. Will George W. allow them to make their own hooch?

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Blue Dogs Turn Into Azure Chupacabras


Moderate Blue Dog Democrats got a bit mangy after imbibing at the AT&T reception at the Democratic National Convention. The corporate giant wanted to say "gracias" for their recently passed telecom immunity. It turns out the Blue Dog's next event is an "Energy Mid-Day Reception for invited guests only. Location: Unannounced." Glenn Greenwald, not welcome.

After downing drinks and snacking on finger food with oil, gas and energy lobbyists, where will the CorporaCrats go next? Surely, the Goat lobby has some cabrito for the now hungry, blue hairless Chupacabras. Beware of the ravenous Azure Chupacabra Democrats! They sell fheir fur for blood money...

New Report on Poverty & Uninsured Doesn't Add Up


If America is no poorer than before, why did so many people qualify for Medicaid, government sponsored health insurance for low income citizens? With the Bush administration blocking state efforts to expand coverage during 2007, what drove legions of Americans to Medicaid? Was it our faltering economy? And what was the impact of citizenship requirements on coverage? How much of the expansion in government insurance was Medicare Advantage, a highly profitable product line for health insurers? Let's look at the numbers that drove my questions.

The Census Bureau released its 2007 estimates for income and health insurance coverage this morning. It states:

1. The official poverty rate in 2007 was 12.5 percent, not statistically different from 2006.

2. In 2007, 37.3 million people were in poverty, up from 36.5 million in 2006.


3. The poverty rate increased for children under 18 years old (18.0 percent in 2007, up from 17.4 percent in 2006)

4. Poverty rates in 2007 were statistically unchanged for non-Hispanic Whites (8.2 percent), Blacks (24.5 percent), and Asians (10.2 percent) from 2006. The poverty rate increased for Hispanics (21.5 percent in 2007, up from 20.6 percent in 2006).

The total U.S. population grew from 296.4 million in 2006 to 298.7 million in 2007. With approximately 15% of our nation uninsured, one might expect that number to grow correspondingly, by some 300,000 people. But it didn't! The number of people without health insurance fell by 1.3 million, according to the Census Department. It fell from 47 million to 45.7 million uninsureds.

Did employers step up and cover more workers? Not according to the report:

The percentage of people covered by private health insurance was 67.5 percent, down from 67.9 percent in 2006. The percentage of people covered by employment-based health insurance decreased to 59.3 in 2007 from 59.7 percent in 2006. The number of people covered by employment-based health insurance, 177.4 million, was not statistically different from 2006.

If employers didn't pick up the slack, who did? Government programs providing coverage for the elderly and poor grew by some 2.7 million people. Medicaid, coverage for the poor, made up 1.6 million of the total.

Yet, despite all this good news, 8.1 million children have no health insurance. The breakdown by race shows:

20.5 million uninsured Whites (non-Hispanic)
7.4 million Blacks without coverage
14.8 million Hispanics with no health insurance


The Census Department estimated the number of uninsureds by region of the country (page 22 of the report). The Northeast had the greatest percentage decrease, 7.5% or 500,000 people Massachusetts implemented a statewide program to ensure all residents have health insurance coverage. Coincidence or cause and effect?

The report shows the expansion in coverage was limited to households making less than $50,000. Very little movement occurred in categories $50,000 and above. The Bush administration worked diligently to restrict states wanting to change income requirements for Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance. It remains to be seen how those efforts impacted the number of uninsured.

The report did not break down Medicare recipients into standard Medicare vs. Medicare Advantage. I mined three large health insurers 2007 annual reports for some insight.

Humana recorded an increase of 140,000 Medicare Advantage enrollees from 2006 to 2007.

WellPoint's report stated "Senior membership increased 57,000, or 5%, driven by growth in Medicare Advantage membership, partially offset by a slight decline in Medicare Supplement membership."

UnitedHealth had a different story. The number of individuals served by Medicare Advantage products as of December 31, 2007 decreased by 75,000, or 5%, from 2006. Yet, rate increases on Medicare Advantage contributed to a 7% revenue growth for that corporate segment.

There is an odd tension in all these numbers. Is the pursuit of profit working against getting citizens covered? While Harry and Louise are back on TV encouraging change, who are they supporting? Insurance companies are doing quite well. They even make money off the expanded Medicaid and CHIP coverage as state contractors. They currently make a nice profit on Medicare Part D and Medicare Advantage.

Who will win out as this mixed Census Department report is digested? Will it be used as a club to beat up "illegals", blacks, Hispanics, and the poor? Will it serve as a guiding light, a beacon that calls us to do better by our fellow citizens? Will insurers' 15% annual return get higher priority than the uninsured American?

Stay tuned! A donnybrook is on the horizon as businesses look to shed that pesky health insurance benefit. Union leaders and our elected shills are paving the way for that to happen. The question is how they'll use this report to accomplish their aim.

Monday, August 25, 2008

Carlyle's FRSGlobal Expands Bank Risk Management Capabilities


The Carlyle Group read the signs on the wall when it purchased FRSGlobal two years ago. The firm sells risk management and regulatory compliance software to banks. FRSGlobal's profits nearly doubled since then.

The Carlyle affiliate agreed to buy Iris, a small risk management firm, to add risk-assessment capabilities to its business. Funny, I expected to see Frances Townsend's name in the Financial Times piece. She helped Carlyle manage risk after Hurricane Katrina.

Mrs. Townsend omitted affiliate LifeCare's twenty four patient deaths from her White House Lessons Learned report. One might expect someone with an iris to see this glaring omission. Not to worry, Fran's risk management consultation services are available. My guess is they're pricey.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Lou Stepping Down as Carlyle's Chairman


The Carlyle Group announced the resignation of Lou Gerstner as Chairman of the politically connected private equity underwriter (PEU). His role will change to Senior Advisor for several of Carlyle's buyout funds.

Did failures at Carlyle Capital, Blue Wave, SemGroup and LifeCare create a surge that pushed Lou from the top chair? Mr. Gerstner reduces his role, effective September 30.

Who will take his place? It's likely a big name, one with stellar business and political connections. Who will be drawn to the top slot at Carlyle with their nearly $83 billion in funds managed? Given the evolving of Eisenhower's military-industrial complex into today's government industrial monstrosity, the PEU's selection of a new chair could tell more about America, than either Vice Presidential appointment. Strange days, indeed!

Friday, August 15, 2008

ExxonMobil Sponsors Political Coverage at CBS, CNN, & National Journal


The most profitable corporation in the world has to do something with all that cash. ExxonMobil stepped up as a major sponsor this election season. Exxon is the proud sponsor of CNN's coverage of both the Democratic and Republican Conventions. They're behind the National Journal's reporting on both events. And don't forget, CBS's political news coverage, branded as "On the Road", comes courtesy of ExxonMobil.

What are the implications for coverage, given that ExxonMobil PAC donates 87% to Republicans and 13% to Democrats? They're mobilizing some 100,000 employees and retirees to turn out in groves come November via Citizen Action Teams. It looks like the ExxonMobil message will be loud and clear the next few months. Over $40 billion in annual profits allows one to float their message.