Polymarket Wager on Maduro: Insider Trading Encouraged

Futurism reported: 

....an unidentified user bet tens of thousands of dollars on various predictions that Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro would be imminently “out” or that the US forces would show up “in Venezuela by” a specified date during the runup to the incursion. 

The account “existed for only one week and quickly became the biggest ‘yes’ holder in the Maduro out market,” Brody tweeted. The evidence of insider trading is compelling, to say the least, given the highly suspicious timing. 

The account invested over $30,000 less than two days before the United States launched its invasion to kidnap Maduro and his wife and “profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours,” as sports entrepreneur Joe Pompliano calculated in a post on Bluesky. 

“Seems pretty suspicious!” he added. “[Secretary of defense] Pete Hegseth making some beer money on the side?” Brody joked. 

“Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged,” Pompliano argued.

Polymarket may not care but federal employees have ethics standards they are required to meet.  I imagine that $370,000 profit is taxable under federal law.  Self reporting is required.   

So who was the insider?  Was it an insider's insider?

Polymarket, the world's largest predictions market, has received an investment from Donald Trump Jr.'s venture capital fund, 1789 Capital.  Don Jr. also joined Polymarket's Advisory Board.

Was the tip passed in the Executive Club, an exclusive high dollar club promoting access to Trump administration officials?  Don Jr. and his 1789 Capital peers are owners of the Executive Club.  

If it was a U.S. user Polymarket should know their identity:

The U.S. Requirement: Full Identity Verification 

If you are a “Polymarket Bro” based in the United States using the new regulated app, the rules are different.  To comply with federal law and CFTC regulations: 

Mandatory KYC: You must complete full identity verification before you can deposit a single dollar. 

What You’ll Need: Be prepared to provide your full name, date of birth, residential address, and your Social Security Number (SSN). 

Document Upload: You will likely need to provide a photo of a government-issued ID (Driver’s License or Passport).

I look forward to learning who the new account holder was.  It would be rich if the insider knowledge profiteer was a Trump son, given the harangues delivered over Hunter Biden.  Yes, that was part of Trump's whipping up the crowd five years ago on Jan. 6, 2021.  

The political Red Team does double standard better than anyone.  It's danged near perfection.