Libation Day: The Aftermath

It turns out Trump II's tariff analysis had all the rigor of a DOUGEBAG savings.  Every business channel is eviscerating its construction.

“[It is] quite an extraordinary calculation after months of work behind the scenes,” said Jim Reid, the global head of macro research at Deutsche Bank. “[It] didn’t add much confidence on there being an in-depth strategic implementation plan.”

Economic experts noted that estimating tariffs and the cost of unfair trade is difficult but they expected better than dividing the U.S.'s trade deficit with that country by the value of imports from that same country.  Trump II is characterizing our buying more from outside the country than those countries buy from us as "ripping us off."  As Sarah Eisner of CNBC said, "The U.S. does not grow coffee.  We don't grow bananas."

So why would Trump II, the digital Caligula push such a draconian economic policy?  One, Trump needs revenue, even the kind that evaporates under examination, to give his billionaire buddies their extended and improved tax cuts.  These are the same billionaires, many private equity underwriters (PEU) who sent jobs overseas under both Red and Blue White Houses.  Trump blamed the receiving nations, as erroneous as his tariff calculation.

"For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far. ... Foreign leaders have stolen our jobs, foreign cheaters have ransacked our factories and foreign scavengers have torn apart our once beautiful American dream."

Looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by the very people getting Trump's massive tax cuts.  PEU legendary founders stole the jobs, ransacked affiliate factories and sucked the American dream into their personal coffers.  Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin knows as he sent thousands of jobs to China while at The Carlyle Group.  The greed and leverage boys have something new to sell you.  

Two, Trump II, the digital Caligula's billionaire buddies want their PEU products in your 401(k).  A shock to the retirement account balance may foster their consideration.  It may even steer people away from a study showing major stock indexes beat alternatives over time

Three, Trump II, the digital Caligula is in the dollar alternative business, cryotocurrencies, and a shock to the dollar's value could open people to the Trump family personal currency option ($TRUMP, Official Melania, Bitcoin (American Bitcoin), TMTG's TruthFi (crypto ETFs) & World Liberty Financial).

Trump said on the campaign trail that his tariffs would "bring down prices."  It's on tape.

Baron knows how to find the clip with his father's clearly stated promise.  He's a genius at that stuff.

Be sure to watch the clip before your next voting opportunity when you vote your pocketbook. 

Tariff Running Man

It's a big day for two of the biggest manipulators of fear, violence and money to induce behavior.  Trump II, the digital Caligula, will announce his giant new tax plan by implementing additional tariffs on imported goods.  His version of Running Man airs at 4:00 pm from the Rose Garden.  Trump wants to bring back Tariff Runners, a greatly expanded black market enabled by his family's digital currency holdings.  If billionaires can give millions to avoid taxes, what can corporate chiefs do to avoid tariffs.  Maybe not bring their goods in through official channels and use an anonymous financial instrument.  Trump practically invited them to do so by dismantling regulatory enforcers and pardoning a gaggle of fraud convicts.

Fellow manipulator Elon Musk is wondering why his millions ($) did not garner his desired outcome in Wisconsin.  Enough Cheeseheads recognized the South African Carpetbagger who's treating government employees like their auto parts manufacturing peers.  "No job for you."

At least Elon didn't tell Wisconsinites to envision they were voting with a bomb strapped to their head or that they needed to sleep in the voting booth for their vote to count.

Independent voters are realizing they were conned in that last election by the master of cons, funded by another master of cons.  They voted for a decent economy doing better and action to bring down inflation.  Trump seems intent on accelerating an economic descent while sending prices soaring across the board.  

Tariffs are taxes and they will be avoided at all costs by the billionaire private equity underwriters (PEU) and their fellow TechGods, which sponsor both political teams.  For decades this billionaire PEU class exported jobs to Asia under the widespread approval of politicians Red and Blue.  Highly unpopular PEU preferred "carried interest" taxation remains firmly in place after both parties used its elimination as a campaign slogan.

Tariff Running Man starts today.  Who loves Trump and who does he love, besides Elon?

Place your bets!!!!

Update:  You want people in front of the "click bait" social media and not protesting.  Elon folded X into xAI, while Trump II's Truth Social filed for him to unload his shares.

Trump gets more financial freedom while saddling others with misery.  That's exciting for our Fraudster in Chief.  It's worth a kiss and maybe some tongue.

The Great Announcer did his thing in the Rose Garden and Dow Futures plummeted.  CNBC reported:

“What was delivered was as haphazard as anything this administration has done to date, and the level of complication on top of the ultimate level of new tariffs is worse than had been feared and not yet priced into the market,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management.

Another Savage Whim from the Great Usurper.

For many, it's Libation Day....

My wise friend wrote:

It's interesting you use the term running man. I think of him as a burning man. Burns everything down like a bust out. He'll do anything to enrich himself and everyone else pays. We knew his history, he has revealed himself many times, and yet the people of this country invited him back into the White House. Did you see yesterday's interview with Kid Rock? Every other head of state throughout the world has to be thinking what a clown show.

My response:

Trump's much more of a burning man as you so ably point out. Everyone was waiting for the big announcement so I chose an announcer proxy in Damon Killian. Had a little fun with it. Some of my stuff sticks better than others....and some stinks greater than others. Interesting that Trump can sling any crap against the wall and many people buy it. 

Saw Kid Rock's White House outfit, a la Elon. It takes hubris in spades to denigrate the sanctity of the Oval Office.

Who loves you and who do you love?  It's time to start RUNNING.....

SkinTECH Failure: Luxury Covering

The Business of Fashion reported the resignation of CaaStle's founder and CEO Christine Hunsicker.  CaaStle provides clothing rental logistics services for high end brands.  A letter sent by the CaaStle board stated that Hunsicker:

had given some investors “misstated financial statements and falsified audit opinions, as well as capitalisation information that understated the number of company shares outstanding,” the letter said. 

“The company is facing a severe and immediate liquidity problem,”

Having Caa in the company's name should have been a warning given Moody's ratings considers Caa1 "judged to be of poor standing and are subject to very high credit risk."  Forget the sorry name, what does the company actually do?  

Crunchbase reports:

CaaStle is focused on developing systems and methods for managing data associated with wearable items in a clothing subscription service. This includes creating electronic platforms for transactions and inventory sharing, as well as user interfaces for electronic interactions. They are also working on garment size recommendations and optimizing wearable item selection. Additionally, CaaStle is exploring image analysis for apparel and electronic recommendation engines for apparel subscriptions. These efforts aim to enhance the efficiency and user experience of their Clothing as a Service model.

What happens if skintech CaaStle does not get another liquidity injection from Bill Ackman?  

Who gets the keys to the CaaStle?  Maybe nobody, as in the case of fintech Synapse.  Marc Andreessen fled from that stinking corpse all the way to Washington, D.C. where he joined the "government as a SERVE US billionaires" model.  

Update 4-2-25:  Axios reported the depths of Hunsicker's financial chicanery:

Hunsicker last year told prospective investors that CaaStle generated $519 million in 2023 revenue. According to audited financials that the company sent this weekend to shareholders, the actual revenue figure for the year ending Sept. 30, 2023 was only $15.7 million. 

Prospective investors also were told that fiscal 2022 revenue was $278 million, when it actually was $19.7 million. Projections for 2024 and 2025 revenue were $793 million and around $1 billion, respectively. Hunsicker also claimed that 2023 EBITDA was $91 million and virtually flat in 2022. The audited financials don't specifically include EBITDA, but do show a combined $135 million net loss for the two fiscal years. 

Prospective investors were told that CaaStle had hundreds of millions of dollars in cash as of mid-2024. If so, that's a heck of a trick. It ended Sept. 2023 with less than $1 million in cash and around $3 million in total assets, and then raised just under $60 million in subsequent funding.

Hunsicker co-founded other skintech companies which are now fleeing from her dung filled representations.  If Marc Andreessen can skate Synapse's debacle, surely Hunsicker can arrange something.

Trump's Instant "T" Frustrates PEU Leaf Readers

Private equity underwriters (PEU) hired high level tea leaf readers over the last few decades.  They include:

The Carlyle Group - Admiral James Stavridis (a regular on CNN)

KKR - General David Petraeus

Apollo - David Krone, former Chief of Staff Senator Harry Reid

These talented seers of the future were aided by PEU founders, legendary for their ability to influence government policy.  

Trump II's tariff gyrations have flummoxed PEU Legends and their high paid strategists.  "T" is for tariff and it's very hard to read the leaves if they remain in the mind of one man, especially one known for his savage whims.

The greed and leverage boys thought they'd be shopping affiliates in an economy with accelerating growth and increasing capital flows into the U.S. because "our tech is the world's future."  That is not happening.

Oddly, PEUs may gain new affiliates via their private credit offerings, getting the keys to other PEU's affiliates unable to keep up with interest payments.  

PEU Libation Day may involve exchanging their sponsor's name, creditor eats wiped out equity owner.  Those tea leaves are somewhat readable.

Otherwise, the world awaits the decrees of the Savage Whimmer.  Libation may be in all our futures.

PEU Water: Sign of the Thames

Thames Water will sell to KKR, a private equity underwriter (PEU) according to the BBC.  The debt bloated utility will stiff some creditors as part of the deal. 

KKR will become the second financial barbarian to own Thames Water.  Macquarie Asset Management held the British water utility from 2006-2017.  Macquarie knows how much it siphoned from Thames Water through deal fees, annual management fees, dividends/special distributions and liquidity recapitalizations (debt for dividend).   

Montanans can advise Londoners of the perils of PEU water utility ownership.  The Carlyle Group purchased Mountain Water which supplied water for the City of Missoula.  That sage resulted in surprise sales and loads of litigation.  (PEU Report did many posts on Carlyle's treatment of Mountain Water.)

Macquarie Asset Management settled with the SEC on another matter in September 2024.  Their statement reads:

This legacy matter is not consistent with how we do business. We have already undertaken and are focused on completing additional remedial steps to address the issues identified in the investigation, with clients the priority.

So Thames Water's prior owner has had shady episodes.  They are in the rear view mirror.  What's ahead with KKR?

KKR Private Equity Conglomerate LLC is set up to invest in companies outside the U.S.   Investors have pumped in nearly $10 billion to date (SEC filing).  The most recent K-PEC annual report stated:

The Company operates so that it will qualify to be treated as a partnership for U.S. federal income tax purposes under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended, and not as a publicly traded partnership taxable as a corporation. As such, it will not be subject to any U.S. federal and state income taxes. In any year, it is possible that the Company will be considered a publicly traded partnership and will not meet the qualifying income exception, which would result in the Company being treated as a publicly traded partnership and taxed as a corporation, rather than as a partnership. In such case, the members would then be treated as shareholders in a corporation, and the Company would become taxable as a corporation for U.S. federal, state and/or local income tax purposes. The Company would be required to pay income tax at corporate rates on its net taxable income. 

K-PEC has two KKR PEUs as co-chairman, Peter Stavros and Nathanial Taylor.  In another small world revelation the 10-k stated:

Stavros was with GTCR Golder Rauner from 2002 to 2005, where he was involved in the execution of numerous investments in the health care sector.

GTCR sold LifeCare Hospitals to The Carlyle Group just weeks before Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans turning lifesaving facilities into death traps.  Twenty four patients died in the LifeCare unit within Memorial Hospital (owned by Tenet Healthcare).  That got no mention in President George W. Bush's Lessons Learned report and brother Jeb landed a spot on the Tenet Healthcare Board of Directors.  

Having survived a river-flooded 725 bed hospital in Virginia and worked hard to evacuate a Texas Gulf Coast hospital before then record Hurricane Gilbert, I was particularly sensitive to the plight of those flood victims.  Seeing politically connected PEUs get no mention provided the impetus for my blogging and PEU Report.  

Politicians Red and Blue love PEU and increasingly, more are one.  Elected officials had decades to eliminate PEU preferred "carried interest" taxation and did not, despite the public's loathing of this unfair tax break that helped grow millionaires into billionaires.

Water is life, too much is death and just as the fish has no concept of water, most of us do not know we live in a PEU milieu.

Pablum Pardons "Jiggery-Pokery" Pack

Trump II, who I recently nicknamed Pablum, pardoned a number of convicted fraudsters this past week in his "Just Us" Financial Criminals campaign. The list includes Trevor Milton (Nikola), Carlos Watson (Ozy Media), Devon Archer (defrauded Ogala Sioux) and former state representative Brian Kelsey (election finance cheating). 

The Digital Caligula also pardoned four people convicted of effectively running a money laundering operation by ignoring federal requirements. All four were with BitMEX Crypto Exchange.

My wise friend wrote:

In a world where fraud is the currency, Price is the only thing Holding the Structure.

Lose control of price and you lose control of the structure. CUI BONO? Those defining their wealth by the last marginal buyer. 

Isn't this what private equity does as they eat the structure from the inside through debt transactions.  What's holding the collection of sellable organs (cadaver) together?  Less regulation, Less crime, More fraud.

Extend, Pretend, Lend, Send (offshore, safe from re-appropriation).

There may be a DC Universe inspiration to Trump's pardon frenzy. 

Lex Luthor summons a group of other super-criminals: Cheetah, Star Sapphire, The Shade, Copperhead, and Solomon Grundy, for one purpose: to destroy the League.

"Trevor, Carlos and Devon" sound sinister enough.  The "BitMEX Crypt" gang is a solid criminal moniker. I'm not sure "Brian" will make the criminal mastermind cut. He may need to remain in Tennessee.

Trump is not building crime fighting capacity, he is unraveling it at breakneck speed.  We need someone to foil the "Just Us" Fin-Crims League's plans.  It's forming and the fraud will soon be storming.

Musk Sells to Musk: xAI Gobbles X

Elon Musk's xAI bought Elon Musk's X for $45 billion.  Musk somehow had time to arrange the deal while running six companies and heading the Department of Ungodly Greedy Executives Biased Against Government (DOUGEBAG).  

This deal occurred within a wider AI context.

Tech giants are reshaping finance and intellectual property law to "deliver on AI's promise."  Google founder Eric Schmidt revealed how AI companies steal copyrighted information to train their models, settling with aggrieved parties after becoming financially successful.

Don't count on Uncle Sam to level the playing field between information creators and usurpers/appropriators.   That enforcement beat has been shuttered.

Musk sold his social fabric-ripping X to his machine generated, empathic AI company, which is doing how much government business?  How might any merger costs be passed on to Uncle Sam?  What kinds of tax benefits does Elon get from Elon selling to Elon?  Rest assured, we will never know.

The deal is an all stock deal between two private companies, reminiscent of a private equity underwriter (PEU) selling an affiliate from one fund to another.  Such deals free up cash to pay earlier investors, even entice them to roll over their money.  So who's rolling and who's getting rolled in this deal?  Musk's PEU sales team knows.

It turns out xAI can analyze credit.  Did the parties in this deal use xAI for that purpose?

It's hard to see because there is nothing transparent about xAI gobbling up X.  

How would xAI value X (its new appendage) or the combined companies?  Would it use:

Mark to market for comparable assets

Mark to model

Mark to fantasy

Mark to AI hallucination

Probably all of the above in a monte carlo analysis.  

To close, give credit where credit is due, except when it is copyrighted material scooped up by voracious AI.  

Remember, there's a lot of anus in there.

But Eric Schmidt never told us that....

I look forward to seeing the picture where self-medicating Elon shakes hands with employee-abusing Elon to close the X/xAI deal.