Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Carlyle Group Breaks Flatline

The Carlyle Group's units broke below their IPO price of $22 per share.  The WSJ reported on the matter by citing an earlier story:

People familiar with the matter said the lead bank on the deal, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., helped keep the shares in the black.
WSJ went on to say:

J.P. Morgan must have been earning their keep. The stock barely budged during its first four days as a publicly traded company.
Carlyle co-founder David Rubenstein promised a pop, although he suggested it would be positive for investors.  CG fell on low volume.  Oddly, deeper discounts didn't bring more buyers. 

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Carlyle Group: Range Bound or Flat Line?

Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein said they priced the IPO so investors got take advantage of the pop.  So far, no pop.  The chart looks tails off into a near flat line.

One day trading was range bound, mostly a penny up or penny down..


The pop could come, up or down.  Stay tuned.

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Carlyle's "Cash Tax Savings" Won't Go to Unit Holders


I admit it.  I missed the major thrust of The Carlyle Group's byzantine "cash tax savings" in their "tax receivable agreement.".  I mistakenly thought Carlyle's co-founders were being indemnified against any future tax increases on carried interest. Instead, it's a co-founder cash bleeding of affiliates

We will enter into a tax receivable agreement with our existing owners whereby the corporate taxpayers (affiliates) will agree to pay to our existing owners (partners) 85% of the amount of cash tax savings, if any, in U.S. federal, state and local income tax that they realize as a result of these increases in tax basis. 

This bizarre siphoning of cash from affiliates is based on the pass through of corporate overhead from Carlyle.  Pre-IPO Carlyle's owners estimated this cash sluice to be over $1 billion.  Removing the jargon from Carlyle's final S-1/A we get:

Based upon certain assumptions, we estimate that the corporate taxpayers aggregate amount (owed) would be approximately $1,035.6 million.
Post $22 per share IPO, Carlyle's latest filing has this down over $120 million::

Based upon certain assumptions, we estimate that the corporate taxpayers  aggregate amount (owed) would be approximately $915.2 million.

Driving home the cash drain intent is Carlyle's description of its Tax Receivable Agreement:

Payments under the tax receivable agreement will be based on the tax reporting positions that we will determine. The corporate taxpayers will not be reimbursed for any payments previously made under the tax receivable agreement if a tax basis increase is successfully challenged by the IRS. 

As a result, in certain circumstances, payments could be made under the tax receivable agreement in excess of the corporate taxpayers’ cash tax savings.

In the event that The Carlyle Group L.P. or any of its wholly-owned subsidiaries become taxable as a corporation for U.S. federal income tax purposes, these entities will also be obligated to make payments under the tax receivable agreement on the same basis and to the same extent as the corporate taxpayers.


It remains to be seen how that odd "qui pro quo" at the end materializes.  The end result is a cash bypass of new Carlyle stock holders.  These payments are made to exiting owners, not unit holders.

How many new Carlyle investors are aware of this?  I envision them standing and staring at their unit.

Update 5-7-12:  Forbes speaks of the potential conflict between PEU partners and unit/stock holders.

Update 8-3-15:  Naked Capitalism noted this PEU trick to strip cash from affiliates going public.

Update 8-4-22:  A pension fund sued Carlyle Group Inc.'s senior leaders in Delaware, challenging a $344 million payment to the private equity firm’s founders in connection with the end of tax agreements they reached when taking the asset manager public.

Update 8-15-24:  A large pension fund sued KKR over its tax receivable agreement with founders Henry Kravis and George Roberts.

Friday, May 4, 2012

DBD's "Good News" on Carlyle IPO


Forbes revealed The Carlyle Group's latest redefinition of success on their IPO:

The deliberate discount, together with no first day pop, means that Carlyle’s billionaire founders, David Rubenstein, Daniel D’Aniello and William Conway, hold stakes in the company worth $1.03 billion each. And while, with their personal cash reserves, including last year’s distribution of $134 million apiece, the trio are still comfortably billionaires boasting net worths in the $1.8 billion range, they themselves have been heavily discounted from the $2.8 billion each was tagged with just a few months ago.

The $1 billion drop for each DBD is significant and fails to meet any success criteria.

But that being said, the fact that Carlyle enjoyed a relatively quiet IPO is a good thing. It means the firm’s shares haven’t tanked yet and Rubenstein, Conway and D’Aniello have successfully avoided the pervasive negativity that would have accompanied an immediate flop. So while they are by no means out of the woods yet, it is so far so good for the newly public Carlyle Group and the three billionaires behind the $147 billion private equity behemoth.

Didn't David Rubenstein promise a pop or was that sales talk, i.e. puffery?  A nickel a unit doesn't sound like a pop to me.

Thursday, May 3, 2012

Carlyle Group IPO: Redefining Success



The IPO launched at $22 per unit, well below maximum pricing of $25. Carlyle's units closed at $22.05 in its first day on NASDAQ.

This "performance" required redefinition for success.  Reuters reported:


But it wasn't enough for Carlyle co-founder David Rubenstein to save face. He had told investors during the company's road show that by valuing the firm conservatively, he hoped Carlyle's stock would rise after the firm went public, unlike the selloffs that followed the recent IPOs of its peers.


"Our principal focus in the offering was to attract a large number of highly respected institutional investors who support our emphasis on cash earnings and who will support our efforts to grow the firm over the long term. We think we have accomplished that objective," Rubenstein said in a statement after the market close on Thursday.

Not long ago Carlyle expected $850 million in IPO proceeds.  How many times did Carlyle redefine success downward? Good thing WaPo rode to the rescue with a positive statistic, new D.C. millionaires.

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Carlyle Prices at $22: Below Original Range


Forbes reported:

The company (The Carlyle Group) priced its IPO at $22 per share after the closing bell, according to TradeTheNews.com, the low end of a $22-$23 anticipated range that had already been lowered from $23-$25. The 30.5 million common units sold raised $671 million.
Not long ago estimates were that 10% of Carlyle would fetch $850 million.  

Shares of Carlyle will begin trading Thursday on the Nasdaq stock exchange.
The DBD's, Carlyle's co-founders who plan to liquefy their stake, hope Carlyle doesn't pull an Oaktree and fall out of the IPO gate.

It took 21 investment banks to push Carlyle at $22.  Unimpressive.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Seas for Pricing Carlyle Group's IPO

How much will The Carlyle Group discount its IPO, given this week's bad news?  Will the IPO leave dry dock as a majestic vessel in smooth seas?

Or will things be a bit rougher?
Only 21 Investment Banks will know for sure....

Update 5-2-12:  The launch was rough coming in below the expected range.