This morning Carlyle Group Vice Chair Admiral James Stavridis told CNN's Michael Smerconish that Trump II would need to go after Iran economically.
Not disclosed in this interview:
1. Admiral James Stavridis' full time job as Carlyle's Vice Chair. This includes mobilizing other senior military leaders on behalf of Carlyle as it pursues high growth defense investments.
2. Stavridis recommendation three weeks into the U.S./Israeli excursion (March):
Admiral James Stavridis, the former supreme allied commander of NATO and a vice chair at Carlyle, told Semafor last year that a postwar Iran could be “the big investment opportunity in the Middle East.” An educated population of 90 million people with good demographic trends and a strong national culture — “they believe in themselves as Persians,” he said — could “look like the reconstruction of the Korean peninsula after the end of the Korean War.”
3. The Admiral's ongoing assessments of the Strait of Hormuz as part of his Carlyle Group responsibilities.
There are some clear opportunities that emerge from the geopolitical uncertainty.The first is obvious, which is the impact on energy. We believe the global system will see some level of “rewiring” to include more pipelines and shipping routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. There will also likely be opportunities in renewable and sustainable energy technology, even in the era of “drill baby, drill.” The effort to bring more oil from other sources – for example, from Venezuela, the Arctic, and UAE now that they are out of OPEC – will likely increase.A second major opportunity set will be in defense spending, which is rising rapidly in the United States, Europe, and Japan. A premium on new technologies – drones, lasers, artificial intelligence for war, hypersonic missiles, and special forces – is clearly emerging not only from the war in Iran but also from the four-year conflict in Ukraine.Thirdly, given their geographic position somewhat out of the maelstrom of the Middle East and the geopolitical tensions between the west and Iran, we believe India emerges as an attractive investment opportunity. New Delhi seems keen to work with all sides in the current geopolitical environment, and alongside its strong demographics and status as the world’s largest democracy, exploring commercial opportunities there could make sense.
Trump II does not listen to his own military leaders, so why would he listen to Admiral Stavridis? Because Trump watches television. Lots of it.
If someone wanted Trump to consider Stavridis advice, the best way would to make the Admiral look neutral. A Carlyle Group tag would not help, given Trump's antipathy towards co-founder David Rubenstein.
Politicians Red & Blue love PEU and their new TechGod brethren. Increasingly, more are one.
Everybody is shamelessly pushing their own book, especially Trump II and his disturbing progeny. The role models are long gone.
