Saturday, October 29, 2016

Biden Traitor Klain is PEU


Vice President Joe Biden's recent Secretary of State dance with Blue team Presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton becomes more interesting in light of Wikileaks e-mail revelations.  PEUReport revealed the Podesta team's disdain for Biden in one e-mail exchange between John and Neera Tanden.

Another shows the role Ron Klain played as Hillary and Joe vied for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

She (Hillary) was great last night. Thanks for inviting me into the campaign, and for sticking with me during the Biden anxiety. You are a great friend and a great leader. It's been a little hard for me to play such a role in the Biden demise - and I am definitely dead to them -- but I'm glad to be on Team HRC, and glad that she had a great debate last night. Thanks John.  10-14-15
Ron Klain, Executive Vice President for Revolution LLC, a D.C. based private equity underwriter (PEU) founded by AOL's Steve Case.

Klain asked John Podesta to help find his daughter a job.

Hey anything you can do to help w this would be most appreciated. Any job in press or policy or comms would be great. She is highly unlikely to get a job in OVP....
Podesta's team delivered within 40 days for PEU Klain.

One can throw a rock on the 1000 block of Rhode Island or Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, D.C. and odds are high it will hit a private equity underwriter.  Revolution LLC is on Rhode Island and The Carlyle Group on Pennsylvania Avenue.

Political Backstage is PEU


Front stage:

Politico reported "Joe Biden is at the top of the internal short list Hillary Clinton’s transition team is preparing for her pick to be secretary of state."  Biden would bring buckets of star power.

Back stage:

Joe Biden's son is on the board of Burisma, a Ukranian oil/gas company, and advisor to Rosemont Realty.  Burisma stands to benefit from USAID loan guarantees for every phase of the development of oil and gas in Ukraine.  Also, Ukraine's Finance Minister founded Horizon Capital, a Ukraine focused private equity underwriter (PEU).

Front Stage:

"He'd be great, and they are spending a lot of time figuring out the best way to try to persuade him (Biden) to do it if she (Hillary) wins.

Back stage:

Neera Tanden:    To tell me that Biden (or his people - unclear to me who) are calling asking for support. Not doing a hard sell. Apparently, he's having some meeting in Washington that he's asking people to attend.  You've probably heard stuff like this, but on the off chance you haven't, letting you know.  Aug 14, 2015 4:49 PM

John Podesta:   Yup. Hunter, Mike Donilon, Ricchetti. Biden can't seem to lean on people. Still can't figure out whether he'll rally himself to do it. Hadn't heard about DC meeting. Losing more sleep over getting straight answers from Cheryl than this.  Aug 14, 2015 at 9:58 PM

Neera Tanden:  I was just at the Tower of London and the Rack seemed to be a very successful strategy for getting straight answers from at least some people.  (Source: Wikileaks e-mail 4115)

It's funny how today's Blue team sounds so much like the Reds.

We don't know if the Biden team read the above interchange but the Vice President already declined the opportunity:

Joe Biden said he has no interest in serving in a potential Hillary Clinton administration Friday, a day after Politico reported the vice president was at the top of a short list of candidates for secretary of State being prepared by Hillary Clinton’s transition team.

"I'll do anything I can if Hillary's elected to help her, but I don't want to remain in the administration.

It's Joe's time to cash in.  I imagine Exxon, Apple or Google could use a new Board member.  It's been awhile since The Carlyle Group landed a politician with star power at the top of their game.  There will be no shortage of offers. Might Joe and Carlyle co-founder reprise their Thanksgiving dinner on Nantucket and talk employment?

Update 9-28-19:  ZeroHedge reported Hunter Biden and his partner Devon Archer received $3 million from Burisma.  The story mentions opportunistic USAID funding. 

Update 1-16-20:   President Trump will speak at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland next week.  The billionaire boys will attend.  Horizon Capital is sponsoring Davos' Ukraine House.  The Ukraine Venture Capital and Private Equity Association will meet at the Ukraine House   Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.will host the invitation-only meeting of the National Investment Council of Ukraine at the Ukraine House 

Update 12-18-20:  President Elect Joe Biden calls investigations into son Hunter "foul play." 

Update 10-4-21:  Blue PEU Hunter Biden still owns 10% of a Chinese private equity firm through Skaneateles LLC.  Hunter is the sole owner of Skaneateles.  

Update 3-1-22:  Biden partner Devon Archer was convicted of fraud for defrauding a Native American tribe.  Oddly, doing deals with Native Alaskans is how David Rubenstein got his Carlyle Group seed money. 

Update 8-1-23:  ZeroHedge reported Hunter's partner Devon Archer shed light on Vice President Joe Biden's influence on the Burisma board appointment.  Archer said the family's "brand" had value at a time when the firm was facing corruption allegations.

Update 12-8-23:  PEU cleanup on aisle 9.  Hunter Biden indicted on tax charges.

His gross income nevertheless totaled some $7 million between 2016 and 2020, prosecutors said, pointing to his roles on the board of the Ukrainian energy company Burisma and a Chinese private equity fund as well as his position at a law firm.

Hunter did eventually file his taxes in 2020, while facing a child support case in Arkansas, and the back taxes were paid by a “third party,” prosecutors have said in court documents.

 

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Private Equity Toxic to Employees


WSJ reported:

Hamilton Lane said “one of the key underpinnings” for private-equity firms in the U.S. has been an economy in which corporate profits have risen as a share of gross domestic product, while wages have fallen as a share of GDP in the past 50 years. One reason for this is the “loss of negotiating leverage by labor in the developed world,” the report said.
And they consider reigning in the greed and leverage boys populism?  It's a rational response to basic unfairness (tax-wise) and shady business practices, which started with leveraged buyouts (LBO).  Once Junk Bond King Michael Milken went to jail LBOs got rebranded private equity.  They are toxic under either name. 

Update 10-30-16:  Naked Capitalism had a similar reaction.

Carlyle Energy Pushes Government Subsidies


Utility Dive reported (original source Bloomberg):

Absent financial subsidies and policy support, the nuclear industry will cease to exist within the next decades, Bob Mancini, one of the leaders of the Carlyle Group’s power unit, said at a conference, Bloomberg reports.
Business Insider reported that Carlyle sought natural gas subsidies in California

To offset losses, Rockland Capital, Calpine and other plant owners, including General Electric and the Carlyle Group's Cogentrix, are asking the state for help. They argue that it is in the state's interest to support the natural gas plants because they provide stability and reliability -- attributes that are important to the state's power grid and something weather-dependent wind and solar can't offer. If the plants don't get needed support, their owners have warned, a critical safety net for the grid could disappear. 
To sum up:  Nuclear needs subsidies relative to cheaper fuels, like natural gas.  Natural gas needs subsidies relative to solar and other renewable energy sources.  One could deduce that no matter what, Carlyle needs subsidies. 

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Carlyle Group's AUM Decline Continues

WSJ reported on The Carlyle Group's assets under management (AUM):

The Washington, D.C., private-equity firm currently manages around $169 billion, up from $106.7 billion at the end of 2010. 
That's a charitable characterization for a financial paper.  Carlyle's AUM is down from $202.7 billion in Q2 2014.   Of the last 9 quarters Carlyle's AUM had but one slight uptick.  Seven were declines of roughly $2 billion or more.

Update 11-13-16:  WSJ reported Carlyle lost $400 million from its investment in a Moroccan oil refinery.   The loss came through Carlyle's Vermillion hedge fund.  The report said Carlyle's overall hedge fund business declined from nearly $15 billion in Q3 2014 to $1 billion.  That's a free fall.

Update 3-7-17:  Carlyle is in court asking Lloyd's of London to pay up for the stolen Moroccan oil.

Sunday, October 23, 2016

Will Hillary Help Blackstone Manage Your Mandatory Retirement Savings Account?


Blackstone's Tony James e-mailed John Podesta in January regarding a "Retirement Savings Plan" for all Americans, which Blackstone wants to put to work for its considerable fees.

John,

Teresa Ghilarducci passed along your interest in our Retirement Savings Plan. We've spent considerable time researching and thinking about this issue and believe we have some ideas that offer an immediate, sustainable, low cost and politically viable solution to help tackle a looming crisis. If we don't act, our country will see poverty rates and downward mobility of middle class elderly people not seen since the great depression. It is projected that 16 million retirees will be living in or near poverty by 2022 and 25 million by 2050. If we do nothing, 39 percent of all older workers will be poor or near poor at age 65, so the need is real and imminent. The strain this newly poor population will place on our social safety net will devastate federal, state and local budgets for decades. Our goal was to devise a politically feasible solution that addresses the problem now without worsening the national deficit.

We do not believe the problem can be solved by making Social Security better funded and/or adding a higher minimum benefits for several reasons.

First, expanding Social Security would help to take care of the very poorest members of society - but expanding Social Security doesn't help middle class people very much. Social Security was designed as a safety net for those facing poverty in old age. It was never meant to be a vehicle to guarantee a middle class retirement. Social Security is an entitlement, where savings are redistributed based on income. This is a worthy goal in and of itself, but not the focus of our plan. In contrast to Social Security, with a Guaranteed Retirement Account, you get back what you put in, plus investment earnings. These accounts build on the money people put into their own accounts, giving back even more. In other words, raising SS payments above the poverty line isn't the same as guaranteeing widespread retirement security.

Second, unlike Social Security, this is actual cash in each person's individually owned retirement savings account. Because it is real capital that can be invested well (like a DB plan), the higher returns (6-8% per year) finance a lot of the future needs without requiring larger contributions or adding to the deficit in the future. You don't get investment returns filling a lot of the funding gap with Social Security since it is unfunded.

Third, increasing Social Security would mean adding to FICA taxes. This plan is easier on workers because half comes from employers (offsetting other costs), so only 1.5% from workers. And for the 50% of Americans below median income, that "cost" is offset by a federal tax credit. This tax credit is deficit neutral because we are doing away with the 401k deductions, which benefit primarily the affluent.

Finally, Social Security is such a fraught issue with people so dug in, we worried that opening it up for fundamental change was not implementable from a pragmatic standpoint. So we decided to build on Social Security as is. With our plan, the Guaranteed Retirement Accounts are individually owned and controlled and will not require an additional or larger entitlements which would have obvious appeal to the other side of the aisle.

We looked beyond Social Security and propose individually funded add-on accounts. In this way, all Americans can save more and invest more effectively over a longer period of time to support their retirement. All Americans need well-managed, diversified retirement accounts they can contribute to for their entire career.

We are happy to talk these through with you at any point, but here are the basic principles:

Universal Coverage: Every American who works without a pension plan would automatically have their own Guaranteed Retirement Account (supplemental to Social Security and any individual retirement savings). Individuals accumulate funds in their own accounts and retain full control. Upon retirement, they receive guaranteed payments for their lifetime.

Cost Neutral for Workers AND Taxpayers: Savings are mandatory but cost neutral for almost all Americans who earn below median income. We've calculated that workers and their employers need to contribute an annual 3% to close the retirement savings gap (1.5% each). And a tax credit to offset this contribution for families at or below the median income will be paid for by removing existing deductions that overwhelmingly favor the wealthy, making the plan deficit neutral.

Redistributes Government Support to Those Who Need It Most: The refundable tax credit is a positive change from the current subsidies that favor high earners. In 2014, federal and state governments spent $120 billion to subsidize workers' pensions. But these tax benefits are regressive and do little to benefit workers most at risk. In 2014, the most affluent Americans received over 79% of the benefit from retirement tax deductions. The Retirement Savings Plan remedies that by redeploying existing government support from wealthy retirees to those who need it most.

Individually Owned, Effectively Invested: Unlike Social Security, workers maintain ownership over their account through a transparent investment process. Their assets will be pooled and invested in long-term, low-fee strategies that generate higher returns (6-8% per year) than current 401(k) plans, building on the amount invested and giving back even more.

Guaranteed Lifetime Income: Though privately managed, funds will have a government guaranteed return of 2%. Upon retiring, savings will be returned through annuitized payments. This guarantees a continuous standard of living for as long as retirees live.

Federal Plan; Nationally Mandated: A federal program will provide coordinated collection, record-keeping and payments, as well as better negotiated fees for asset management. And by integrating the payment system seamlessly into Social Security's existing infrastructure, we avoid the need for additional bureaucracy and create efficiencies and savings over time. In addition, only through a Federal plan can we create the tax credit that mitigates the cost for families below median income by redeploying 401k deductions.

Incents Desiring Americans to Work Longer: Workers decide when they retire and begin collecting their savings. This will help Americans to work longer if they wish, which has proven to have significant economic (as well as mental and physical) benefits.

Bi-Partisan Appeal: The GRA model avoids larger entitlement conversations by keeping accounts under individual's control and redistributing savings based on the amount invested, not based on income. And it does so without impacting the budget or raising taxes. From the many conversations we've had with members of Congress from both sides of the aisle, our sense is that it's politically viable. This plan intentionally does not touch or attempt to alter Social Security, address underemployment, mitigate the wealth disparity, or raise stagnant middle class incomes. However, it provides an actionable solution to an impending crisis. And this solution will have resounding impact on more than one half of all working Americans. It will relieve our welfare programs from undue strain and free up revenue for other pressing needs.

This will all be fully fleshed out in a white paper we are releasing in a few weeks. We are happy to make time available to discuss these ideas at your convenience.

Our recent NYT op-ed: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/02/opinion/a-smarterplan-to-make-retirement-savings-last.html

Tony and Teresa

________________________________

This e-mail communication is intended only for the addressee(s) named above and any others who have been specifically authorized to receive it and may contain information that is privileged, confidential or otherwise protected from disclosure. Please refer to www.blackstone.com/email-disclaimer for important disclosures regarding this electronic communication, including information if you are not the intended recipient of this communication.

________________________________

IB Times reported how Blackstone could benefit, in James own words:

“Managing the Guaranteed Retirement Accounts in a pooled fashion would let them leverage that scale to pay lower fees,” James said. “They would also have access to [the] highest quality managers who could adopt long-term investment horizons and invest in less liquid, but higher returning, asset classes that are more appropriate for retirement funding.”

In the blueprint of the plan, James lamented that 401(k) systems “don’t invest in longer-term, illiquid alternatives such as hedge funds, private equity and real estate,” and said the new program could invest in “high-yielding and risk-reducing alternative asset classes.” In a CNBC interview, James said he wants the billions of dollars of new retiree savings to be invested “like pension plans.” He noted that in “the average pension plan in America, about 25 percent is invested in stuff we do, in alternatives, in real estate and private equity and commodities and hedge funds.”
Neera Tanden of the Center for American Progress wrote John Podesta about Mr. James saying:

"He's a really good guy. And given he will take over Blackstone, one to develop a real relationship with. And he's really nice!"
 Nice is not the first word that comes to mind for the greed and leverage boys. 

Update 11-3-16:  The word is spreading

Who Would You Clawback?


Consider the following scenarios where people received bonuses as a result of fraud:

1)  Short of troops to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan a decade ago, the California National Guard enticed thousands of soldiers with bonuses of $15,000 or more to reenlist and go to war.  Audits reveal widespread bonus overpayments by the California Guard at the height of the wars.  Investigations determined that lack of oversight allowed for widespread fraud and mismanagement by California Guard officials under pressure to meet enlistment targets.  Army Master Sgt. Toni Jaffe, the California Guard’s incentive manager, pleaded guilty in 2011 to filing false claims of $15.2 million and was sentenced to 30 months in federal prison. Three officers also pleaded guilty to fraud and were put on probation after paying restitution. (sourceLos Angeles Times)

2)   For years, mortgage giant Fannie Mae has produced smoothly growing earnings. And for years, observers have wondered how Fannie could manage its inherently risky portfolio without a whiff of volatility. Now, thanks to Fannie's regulator, we know the answer. The company was cooking the books. Big time.  Fannie set aside an artificially large cash reserve. And -- presto -- in any quarter its managers could reach into that jar to compensate for poor results or add to it to dampen good ones. This ploy, according to Ofheo, gave Fannie "inordinate flexibility" in reporting the amount of income or expenses over reporting periods.  This flexibility also gave Fannie the ability to manipulate earnings to hit -- within pennies -- target numbers for executive bonuses.  In one particularly volatile year  target EPS for maximum payout was $3.23 and Fannie reported exactly . . . $3.2309. This bull's-eye was worth $1.932 million to then-CEO James Johnson, $1.19 million to then-CEO-designate Franklin Raines, and $779,625 to then-Vice Chairman Jamie Gorelick.  (sourceWall Street Journal)

Here's what our government did.  In the case of Fannie Mae it identified $10.6 billion in fraudulent accounting motivated by greed, executive's desire to receive maximum bonuses. The report showed over $87 million in bonus payouts during the period of accounting fraud by "arrogant and unethical executives."


James Johnson, the recipient of nearly $2 million in fraudulent Fannie Mae bonuses in the report, helped Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama pick his running mate.  Johnson received much of the blame for Fannie Mae's collapse in the 2008 financial crisis, according to two investigative reporters.

Fannie Mae Vice Chair Jamie Gorelick garnered nearly $4.5 million in fraudulent bonuses.  She went to work for the law firm that defended Fannie's fraudulent accounting, WilmerHale.  She led the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spew defense team.

 
Executive Vice President for Law/Policy Tom Donilon defended Fannie Mae by going after the investigating agency.  Donilon received nearly $3 million in ill begotten gains from his time as a Fannie Mae executive.  He became President Barack Obama's National Security Advisor.  Currently Donilon is Vice Chair of O'Melveny, a giant law firm, and Senior Director, BlackRock Investment Institute.  BlackRock featured Donilon in a Russia-Ukraine scenario planning section of a 2014 investment report.

The government let Johnson, Donilon and Gorelick keep every penny of their fraudulent gains.  That same government is going after 10,000 soldiers who received re-enlistment bonuses as a result of Pentagon incompetence or malfeasance:
Nearly 10,000 soldiers, many of whom served multiple combat tours, have been ordered to repay large enlistment bonuses — and slapped with interest charges, wage garnishments and tax liens if they refuse — after audits revealed widespread overpayments by the California Guard at the height of the wars last decade.  

Roughly 9,700 current and retired soldiers have been told by the California Guard to repay some or all of their bonuses and the recoupment effort has recovered more than $22 million so far. 

There are two systems of justice in our country.  Rules for the politically connected, the "Just Us" crew, are far different from those for common folk.  The soldier bonus clawback is but one example.

Update 2-12-17:  Only two Fannie Mae executives had to return a small portion of their ill gotten gains.  Johnson, Donilon and Gorelick got to keep every rotten penny.